Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 0.020395 0.021900 0.023467 0.025220 0.027130 0.029149 0.031449
2024-10-06 0.017693 0.019833 0.022176 0.024938 0.028114 0.031664 0.035949
2024-10-13 0.015859 0.018354 0.021190 0.024668 0.028840 0.033710 0.039862
2024-10-20 0.014329 0.017007 0.020142 0.024110 0.029033 0.034987 0.042803
2024-10-27 0.013497 0.016375 0.019836 0.024341 0.030102 0.037297 0.047076
2024-11-03 0.012708 0.015714 0.019413 0.024345 0.030826 0.039153 0.050833
2024-11-10 0.012163 0.015306 0.019255 0.024642 0.031899 0.041479 0.055322
2024-11-17 0.011453 0.014631 0.018697 0.024355 0.032147 0.042679 0.058308
2024-11-24 0.010894 0.014114 0.018305 0.024247 0.032601 0.044153 0.061739
2024-12-01 0.010312 0.013531 0.017784 0.023918 0.032706 0.045114 0.064457
2024-12-08 0.009920 0.013179 0.017552 0.023965 0.033329 0.046829 0.068382
2024-12-15 0.009440 0.012681 0.017088 0.023648 0.033391 0.047705 0.071060
2024-12-22 0.008931 0.012123 0.016519 0.023156 0.033173 0.048159 0.073125
2024-12-29 0.008543 0.011717 0.016145 0.022925 0.033329 0.049181 0.076162
2025-01-05 0.008181 0.011333 0.015781 0.022687 0.033451 0.050143 0.079149
2025-01-12 0.007769 0.010856 0.015261 0.022182 0.033122 0.050358 0.080877
2025-01-19 0.007586 0.010706 0.015212 0.022392 0.033924 0.052431 0.085920
2025-01-26 0.007359 0.010480 0.015039 0.022396 0.034390 0.053968 0.090124
2025-02-02 0.007215 0.010372 0.015037 0.022664 0.035296 0.056284 0.095886
2025-02-09 0.006947 0.010064 0.014715 0.022405 0.035305 0.057065 0.098874
2025-02-16 0.006734 0.009832 0.014501 0.022307 0.035577 0.058307 0.102807
2025-02-23 0.006485 0.009537 0.014174 0.022008 0.035487 0.058899 0.105528
2025-03-02 0.006329 0.009378 0.014058 0.022051 0.035986 0.060568 0.110464